Is A Balanced Analysis on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Possible?

1. Timing

Timing: So far the Thread’s first consideration, namely that for the first time since Israel’s Prime minister Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination in 1995, the Middle East region witnesses a window of opportunity for deep strategic changes, despite all the odds on the road, is getting every day a new confirmation, especially in view of the progress in the US-Iran talks

2. Perspective

Perspective: similarly, the thread’s prediction that, whatever its final outcome, the ongoing violence would directly affect the current negotiations for possible Israeli Parliamentary coalitions to replace Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government is becoming a reality, even though at this very moment the ultimate outcome is still not defined

3. Awareness

Awareness: Regarding this specific point of the thread, namely that the three main actors behind the political decision to pull the trigger, namely Marwan Barghouti, Yehiyeh Sinwar, and Isma’il Haniyeh coordinated among themselves for common goals, mainly the request for Palestinian elections, after 15 years of Abu Mazen democratic paralysis, there is not yet clear evidence, but the Palestinian protest held on May 21, 2021, against the Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Mufti during his Al-Aqsa Mosque sermon on the Haram Al-Sharif/Har ha Bait (Noble Sanctuary/Temple Mount) Compound for not mentioning Gaza, seems to be a significant hint in this direction

4. The events’ nature

The events’ nature: As of today, all elements seem to confirm the thread’s prediction that the last wave of violence developed for territorial, secular reasons, not religious ones, even if the Jerusalem riots started in Jerusalem, especially on the Haram Al-Sharif/Har ha Bait Compound

5. The US role

The US role: surprising most of the observers and experts, US President Biden gave the best evidence that he has been following very carefully the events, despite his apparent low-profile role, during his May 21, 2021, press conference, when he offered his clear endorsement of the Two-State Solution: “There is no shift in my commitment to the security of Israel, period. No shift, not at all, but I am telling where there is a shift in. The shift is that we still need a two-State solution, and this is the only answer, the only answer.” The shift from the previous US President Trump’s Glocal Abrahamapproach, where the relevant collective identities were the religiously-inspired communities, towards the Westfalia Statist vision could not be more evident

6. The Israeli Arabs

The Israeli Arabs: Regarding the Thread’s prediction, in view of the unprecedented participation in the ongoing Palestinian riots, that Israeli Arabs would impacting potential coalitions, which for the first time since the birth of the State of Israel in 1948 need their support, as a result of the last Knesset elections held on March 23, 2021, it is too early to say the final word, but according to the latest news they might support the anti-Netanyahu coalition getting chairmanships in the Knesset and concrete decisions for their constituency, but without a direct presence in the new government, in exchange of their votes supporting the new coalition