On May 10, 2021, in the middle of the last wave of violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a Twitter Thread tried to draw a balanced unbiased analysis predicting through Magical Glasses its possible scenarios and future outcomes, in light of its geopolitical context and perspective:
Let’s try to assess whether and to what extent it met the reality test:
Timing: So far the Thread’s first consideration, namely that for the first time since Israel’s Prime minister Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination in 1995, the Middle East region witnesses a window of opportunity for deep strategic changes, despite all the odds on the road, is getting every day a new confirmation, especially in view of the progress in the US-Iran talks
Perspective: similarly, the thread’s prediction that, whatever its final outcome, the ongoing violence would directly affect the current negotiations for possible Israeli Parliamentary coalitions to replace Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government is becoming a reality, even though at this very moment the ultimate outcome is still not defined
Awareness: Regarding this specific point of the thread, namely that the three main actors behind the political decision to pull the trigger, namely Marwan Barghouti, Yehiyeh Sinwar, and Isma’il Haniyeh coordinated among themselves for common goals, mainly the request for Palestinian elections, after 15 years of Abu Mazen democratic paralysis, there is not yet clear evidence, but the Palestinian protest held on May 21, 2021, against the Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Mufti during his Al-Aqsa Mosque sermon on the Haram Al-Sharif/Har ha Bait (Noble Sanctuary/Temple Mount) Compound for not mentioning Gaza, seems to be a significant hint in this direction
4. The events’ nature
The events’ nature: As of today, all elements seem to confirm the thread’s prediction that the last wave of violence developed for territorial, secular reasons, not religious ones, even if the Jerusalem riots started in Jerusalem, especially on the Haram Al-Sharif/Har ha Bait Compound
5. The US role
The US role: surprising most of the observers and experts, US President Biden gave the best evidence that he has been following very carefully the events, despite his apparent low-profile role, during his May 21, 2021, press conference, when he offered his clear endorsement of the Two-State Solution: “There is no shift in my commitment to the security of Israel, period. No shift, not at all, but I am telling where there is a shift in. The shift is that we still need a two-State solution, and this is the only answer, the only answer.” The shift from the previous US President Trump’s Glocal Abrahamapproach, where the relevant collective identities were the religiously-inspired communities, towards the Westfalia Statist vision could not be more evident
6. The Israeli Arabs
The Israeli Arabs: Regarding the Thread’s prediction, in view of the unprecedented participation in the ongoing Palestinian riots, that Israeli Arabs would impacting potential coalitions, which for the first time since the birth of the State of Israel in 1948 need their support, as a result of the last Knesset elections held on March 23, 2021, it is too early to say the final word, but according to the latest news they might support the anti-Netanyahu coalition getting chairmanships in the Knesset and concrete decisions for their constituency, but without a direct presence in the new government, in exchange of their votes supporting the new coalition
7. The current Middle Eastern Geopolitical context
The current Middle Eastern Geopolitical context: The last Thread’s prediction was probably the most controversial, but so far it was proven right, namely the enormous impact of Biden’s US presidency on the region and beyond, in order to predict also its guided strategic way out
Chronology of the most significant facts leading to the latest 11-days Israeli-Palestinian riots and violence:
1. April 13 (night), the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Memorial Day in Israel: loudspeaker incident.
2. April 21, just a week after the police raid: Jewish extremist march.
3. April 29: Abbas cancels the Palestinian elections.
4. May 4, six days before the war began: Hamas warning.
5. May 7 (last Friday of Ramadan, one of its holiest nights, shortly after 8 p.m.): Israeli police raid on the Haram Al-Sharif compound.
6. May 10: final Israeli High Court hearing on Sheikh Jarrah set to coincide with Jerusalem Day (Shortly after 6 p.m. the rocket fire from Gaza began).
7. May 15: Palestinian Nakba Day
Protagonists endorsing and supporting the Westfalia Statist identity model:
US President Joe Biden, (Late) Israeli Prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, PLO Fatah Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, Head of the Palestinian Hamas Gaza branch Yehiyeh Sinwar, Hamas Political Bureau Chairman and (disputed) Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Isma’il Haniyeh
Protagonists endorsing and supporting the Trans-boundary Glocal indentity model:
(Former) US President Donald Trump, Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Mufti Mohammed Hussein, Israeli Prime minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, PLO Chairman and Palestinian Authority’s President Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), (Disputed) Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh